Preakness follow-up

Good race!  No great insights, but a few minor points:

  1. WagerMate picked I’ll Have Another to win; 3 of the 4 horses in the Contenders Report finished in the money.  None of the top three were long shots, so this isn’t surprising.
  2. I ‘won’ the exacta — if you define a payoff of $9.30 on $12 worth of bets as a victory.  I’d prefer to actually make a profit.  When the two favorites finish first & second, the payoff won’t amount to much.
  3. I picked the wrong long shots to finish fourth, leaving me with 75% of a superfecta.
  4. NBC has no clue about broadcasting races.

Preakness, conditionally

WagerMate doesn’t recommend any Preakness bets, so like I did for the Kentucky Derby, I’ll just be making some small fun bets.  Here’s an excerpt from the Contenders Report:

WagerMate indicates that I’ll Have Another is the most likely horse to win, with an 18% chance of winning.  But notice that the horse’s ROI is 63%, meaning that, on average, if this race was run 100 times, you’d expect to lose 37% of the money you bet.  Good horse, bad bat.

I’m going to take WagerMate’s advice and bet to win on Creative Cause and Daddy Nose Best, because they both have ROIs that are better than break-even (more than 100%).

I’ll actually use even more of WagerMate’s advice — I’ll be making conditional bets, based on  the Required Odds in the Contenders Report.  The Required Odds are the odds you need to get in order to have a good bet.  So, I’ll take Creative Cause at 6/1, and Daddy Nose Best at 8/1.

I will box 6,7,8,9 in an exacta.

I will spend $19.20 on this 10 cent superfecta: 6,7,8,9 with 5,6,7,8,9 with 5,6,7,8,9 with 5,6,7,8,9,10,11 for $19.20.  That combines WagerMate’s picks with some less-likely horses I like in fourth (continuing the theme “combine WagerMate’s picks with your own work”).

Good luck!


Typically, I’ll use WagerMate the night before a race to start my handicapping.  At that point, the “also eligible” horses are still included, so if I click “Scratch Horses” on the Handicapping tab…

…I’ll see every horse on the card…

When I do the same thing a little before post time, WagerMate will download the latest scratch data, so that I see near-real-time information about the horses running…

If my pick for the race has been scratched, I can simply re-run the WagerMate simulations — WagerMate will automatically exclude the scratched horses.

You can also use this window to manually “scratch” any horses in the race, if you have a reason to exclude them (e.g. post position).  This screen shot shows that I’ve told WagerMate to skip horses #1 and #2 when running the simulations.  When I re-run the simulation, they’ll be treated as if they were scratched, and WagerMate will pick other horses to bet on.

Two horses manually scratched

Good Example

The Kentucky Derby provides a good example of how to use WagerMate.  WagerMate offered four contenders, none of them favorites.  I always advocate combining WagerMate’s advice with your own handicapping knowledge and insights.  That’s what I did on Saturday.  Frankly, I didn’t have a lot of conviction, so I just made small fun bets.

I bet $2 each on the four WagerMate contenders.  When I’ll Have Another won, those bets yielded $32.60.

I also boxed Bodemeister with the WagerMate picks in different ways, spending a total of $14 on exactas.  The $1 exacta paid me $153.30.

I scrimped on the trifecta, betting $13.50 on 5,6,10 with 5,6,10,19 with 4,5,6,10,19.  I coulda woulda shoulda included #19 to win on that ticket…  The 19-6-5 50 cent trifecta paid $766.40.  Oh well, maybe next year.

The take away: use WagerMate’s ideas in combination with your own work (e.g. “fast favorites sometimes do well”).  WagerMate can point you to picks you might have otherwise overlooked.

Derby Fun

WagerMate doesn’t see a “Best Bet” for the Kentucky Derby — it recommends you skip the race.  But that’s no fun….

I’m going to bet (small) on WagerMate’s top 4 picks in the Contenders Report, and think of them as “Just for Fun” wagers:


Good luck!