2016 Preakness

WagerMate likes Nyquist…

2016 Preakness…but I won’t make any win bets.

My exacta bet: 3 over 2, 5, 11.

My superfecta bet: 3 over 1, 2, 5, 11 over 1, 2, 5, 7, 11 over 1, 2, 5, 7, 11.

Have fun!

Build 340

Version 3.5 of WagerMate has been released.  It has one major new feature: it uses a new track-to-track variant.

That one improvement gets us more than a 1% point increase in both the Win Rate and the ROI.  Here are the back testing results on my 2009-2013 data, with the default filter:

Build 340This indicates that if you blindly followed WagerMate’s picks you’d lose 7%.  If you only followed the picks for turf races, you’d win 1%.

By now, you should know that’s not how I really think you should use the WagerMate results — I want you to combine the WagerMate results with your own handicapping work.  If you use the WagerMate results, instead of starting with an ROI of -20% (due to the takeout), you’re starting at -7%, and that’s a big difference.

Good luck!

2016 Kentucky Derby

WagerMate likes Outwork…2016 Derby Contenders

…but I think it make sense to include Nyquist in most of our betting.

I’ll bet on 9 & 15 to win, figuring there’s no value in Nyquist.

I’ll bet 9,13,15 over 9,11,13,14,15 in the exacta.

Good luck!