2018 Belmont Stakes

WagerMate likes the two favorites…

Belmont 2018I’ll bet an exacta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10.  And another exacta with 4, 7, 10 over 1, 4, 7, 10.

I’ll bet a superfecta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over All.

Enjoy!

2018 Preakness Results

We got 75% of the 7-8-6-5 superfecta, for a payoff of $0.00.

The exacta paid $13.70

The two bets cost a total of $12.80, so that’s a tiny profit.

We can use this as an example of needing both handicapping skills and wagering skills to make money.  Almost everyone thought Justify was the best horse — that’s handicapping. But, how do you wager & profit from that belief?  I used a common approach: bet on some long shots to finish in the money.

2018 Preakness

WagerMate likes the favorites…

Preakness 2018…but doesn’t recommend those bets.

Instead, I’ll bet an exacta with 5, 7 over 1, 2, 6, 8 and a superfecta with 5, 7 over 5, 6, 7 over 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8 over 1 ,2, 5, 6, 7, 8.

2018 Kentucky Derby

These are WagerMate’s picks…

Derby 2018I’m going to bet an exacta with 5, 9, 11, 16 over 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 14, 16.

…which uses the WagerMate picks on top, and adds a couple of favorites to place.

2017 Breeders’ Cup

Just like last year, WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots for the Breeders’ Cup races. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 4 horses on Friday, and 14 horses on Saturday.

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Here are the Friday picks…

BC 2017 FridayAnd these are WagerMate’s contenders for the Saturday races…

BC 2017 SaturdayGood luck!

2016 Breeders’ Cup Results

I made 22 win bets.  I miscounted in the last blog entry — the figures show that 21 horses had an ROI over 25% — and Masochistic turned into the 22nd bet because of a scratch in the sixth race yesterday.  The winning bets were on Champagne Room, Finest City, and Tourist.  That’s $115.40 back on the $44 worth of win bets.

Only two of the exacta bets paid off, returning $57.60 on the 13 bets of $6 each (total of $78 spent).

For the weekend, that’s a profit of $51.00 on $122 bet.

Three points:

  1. This would have been a lot worse without $69.20 from Champagne Room, so you could say we had some good luck.
  2. Champagne Room was the 11th most popular horse out of 12 in the race, so WagerMate deserves some credit for making it a contender.
  3. This was done without a shred of manual handicapping.  I still think you should add your own work to WagerMate’s ideas.

2016 Breeders’ Cup

WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots for the Breeders’ Cup races this year. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 7 horses on Friday, and 12 horses on Saturday.

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Here are the Friday picks…

2016 BC FridayThese are WagerMate’s contenders for Saturday…

2016 BC SaturdayHave Fun!

2016 Belmont Stakes

WagerMate is more enthusiastic about Suddenbreakingnews than I am…

2016 Belmont…but as a show of faith, I’ll make a small win bet on 4.

I’ll box 4, 5, and 11 for the exacta.

For the superfecta, I will bet 4, 5, 11 over 4, 5, 11 over  1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11 over  1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11.

2016 Preakness

WagerMate likes Nyquist…

2016 Preakness…but I won’t make any win bets.

My exacta bet: 3 over 2, 5, 11.

My superfecta bet: 3 over 1, 2, 5, 11 over 1, 2, 5, 7, 11 over 1, 2, 5, 7, 11.

Have fun!

Build 340

Version 3.5 of WagerMate has been released.  It has one major new feature: it uses a new track-to-track variant.

That one improvement gets us more than a 1% point increase in both the Win Rate and the ROI.  Here are the back testing results on my 2009-2013 data, with the default filter:

Build 340This indicates that if you blindly followed WagerMate’s picks you’d lose 7%.  If you only followed the picks for turf races, you’d win 1%.

By now, you should know that’s not how I really think you should use the WagerMate results — I want you to combine the WagerMate results with your own handicapping work.  If you use the WagerMate results, instead of starting with an ROI of -20% (due to the takeout), you’re starting at -7%, and that’s a big difference.

Good luck!