WagerMate likes the two favorites…

I’ll bet an exacta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10. And another exacta with 4, 7, 10 over 1, 4, 7, 10.

I’ll bet a superfecta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over All.

Enjoy!

We got 75% of the 7-8-6-5 superfecta, for a payoff of $0.00.

The exacta paid $13.70

The two bets cost a total of $12.80, so that’s a tiny profit.

We can use this as an example of needing both handicapping skills and wagering skills to make money. Almost everyone thought Justify was the best horse — that’s handicapping. But, how do you wager & profit from that belief? I used a common approach: bet on some long shots to finish in the money.

WagerMate struck out — it didn’t have either Justify or Good Magic in the top 4 spots, so that exacta cost $24 with no return.

I managed to lose all 14 Win bets, for a grand total of $28.

I did win two of the exactas for $67.80 and $17.00. So the $78 spent on exacta tickets returned $84.80.

Hope you had as much fun as I did!

Just like last year, WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots for the Breeders’ Cup races. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 4 horses on Friday, and 14 horses on Saturday.

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Here are the Friday picks…

And these are WagerMate’s contenders for the Saturday races…

Tapwrit won — none of the other WagerMate picks was even close.

Soooo, let’s average the Derby & Preakness & Belmont results and talk about that number….

…$168.10 returned for a $36 investment.

Ummmm. Well Cloud Computing messed up my exacta. Let’s average the Derby & Preakness results and talk about that number….

The finish order of 5-1-11-14 means the $12 exacta I played turned into $168.10.

I was impressed that Lookin At Lee could do so well from post position 1.

I made 22 win bets. I miscounted in the last blog entry — the figures show that 21 horses had an ROI over 25% — and Masochistic turned into the 22nd bet because of a scratch in the sixth race yesterday. The winning bets were on Champagne Room, Finest City, and Tourist. That’s $115.40 back on the $44 worth of win bets.

Only two of the exacta bets paid off, returning $57.60 on the 13 bets of $6 each (total of $78 spent).

For the weekend, that’s a profit of $51.00 on $122 bet.

Three points:

- This would have been a lot worse without $69.20 from Champagne Room, so you could say we had some good luck.
- Champagne Room was the 11th most popular horse out of 12 in the race, so WagerMate deserves some credit for making it a contender.
- This was done without a shred of manual handicapping. I still think you should add your own work to WagerMate’s ideas.

WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots for the Breeders’ Cup races this year. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 7 horses on Friday, and 12 horses on Saturday.

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Here are the Friday picks…

13-2-10-1 — with Creator paying $34.80 to win, and Destin paying $9.40 to place.

Didn’t see that coming…

5-1-3-11 — so, no tickets to cash.

Version 3.5 of WagerMate has been released. It has one major new feature: it uses a new track-to-track variant.

That one improvement gets us more than a 1% point increase in both the Win Rate and the ROI. Here are the back testing results on my 2009-2013 data, with the default filter:

This indicates that if you blindly followed WagerMate’s picks you’d lose 7%. If you only followed the picks for turf races, you’d win 1%.

By now, you should know that’s not how I really think you should use the WagerMate results — I want you to combine the WagerMate results with your own handicapping work. If you use the WagerMate results, instead of starting with an ROI of -20% (due to the takeout), you’re starting at -7%, and that’s a big difference.

Good luck!