2018 Breeders’ Cup Saturday

WagerMate’s contenders for Saturday…

BC 2018 Saturday

The Breeders’ Cup races are races 3 though 11.  As usual, WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots.

I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 16 horses on Saturday (including 4 in race 10!).

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Looks like I’ll be rooting for some unpopular horses…

Best of luck to you.

2018 Breeders’ Cup Friday

Here are WagerMate’s contenders for Friday…

BC 2018 FridayI’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 8 horses on Friday.

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Good Luck!

A New Strategy

In WagerMate, you can set all of your filters, and then save them in a “strategy” file (with “wmst” as the extension).

I developed a new strategy today — in about 10 minutes.  First, I’ll show you the screen shots with my filters set.  The first page of filters looks like this:

V4A_1The second page of filters are set like this:

V4A_2Note that I’ve set the new Track Quality filters to eliminate some tracks.  The last page of filters:

V4A_3Here, I decided to skip any races that had more than 2 unpredictable horses.  Most of those are first time starters, or horses new to a surface.

You can see that I named this strategy “V4A.wmst”.  OK, you can probably think of a better name.  On the upside, it shows a small profit:

V4A Results
You can download the V4A.wmst file and see if it works for you.

WagerMate V4 ROI

In addition to the new filters I mentioned yesterday, WagerMate 4.0 has a lot of improvements in how it evaluates horses, and runs its simulations.

Here are the back testing results on my 2009-2017 data, with the default filters:

V4 Default 2009-2017

If you did no handicapping of your own, and simply bet on the 46,528 races that WagerMate told you to, you’d have won 25.34% of those races and lost 6.01% of your money.

Compare that to your competition — if they bet blindly, they’d lose 15% or 20% (the track’s takeout) — so you have a huge head start.

I hope you can use WagerMate’s filters AND your own expertise to get results that are even better than the WagerMate default selections.

Best of luck!

WagerMate V4

Version 4.0 of WagerMate has been released.  The most visible feature is that there are now 21 handicapping filters instead of just 7.

The first page should look fairly familiar:

HC_CBIf you click “Next”, you’ll see the second page of filters:

HC_CB_2Click “Next” again to see the third page of filters:

HC_CB_3I’ll post soon about some other new features.

Good Luck!

2018 Belmont Stakes

WagerMate likes the two favorites…

Belmont 2018I’ll bet an exacta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10.  And another exacta with 4, 7, 10 over 1, 4, 7, 10.

I’ll bet a superfecta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over All.


2018 Preakness Results

We got 75% of the 7-8-6-5 superfecta, for a payoff of $0.00.

The exacta paid $13.70

The two bets cost a total of $12.80, so that’s a tiny profit.

We can use this as an example of needing both handicapping skills and wagering skills to make money.  Almost everyone thought Justify was the best horse — that’s handicapping. But, how do you wager & profit from that belief?  I used a common approach: bet on some long shots to finish in the money.

2018 Preakness

WagerMate likes the favorites…

Preakness 2018…but doesn’t recommend those bets.

Instead, I’ll bet an exacta with 5, 7 over 1, 2, 6, 8 and a superfecta with 5, 7 over 5, 6, 7 over 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8 over 1 ,2, 5, 6, 7, 8.

2018 Kentucky Derby

These are WagerMate’s picks…

Derby 2018I’m going to bet an exacta with 5, 9, 11, 16 over 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 14, 16.

…which uses the WagerMate picks on top, and adds a couple of favorites to place.

2017 Breeders’ Cup

Just like last year, WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots for the Breeders’ Cup races. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 4 horses on Friday, and 14 horses on Saturday.

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Here are the Friday picks…

BC 2017 FridayAnd these are WagerMate’s contenders for the Saturday races…

BC 2017 SaturdayGood luck!

2016 Breeders’ Cup Results

I made 22 win bets.  I miscounted in the last blog entry — the figures show that 21 horses had an ROI over 25% — and Masochistic turned into the 22nd bet because of a scratch in the sixth race yesterday.  The winning bets were on Champagne Room, Finest City, and Tourist.  That’s $115.40 back on the $44 worth of win bets.

Only two of the exacta bets paid off, returning $57.60 on the 13 bets of $6 each (total of $78 spent).

For the weekend, that’s a profit of $51.00 on $122 bet.

Three points:

  1. This would have been a lot worse without $69.20 from Champagne Room, so you could say we had some good luck.
  2. Champagne Room was the 11th most popular horse out of 12 in the race, so WagerMate deserves some credit for making it a contender.
  3. This was done without a shred of manual handicapping.  I still think you should add your own work to WagerMate’s ideas.