WagerMate’s contenders for Saturday…
The Breeders’ Cup races are races 3 though 11. As usual, WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots.
I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 16 horses on Saturday (including 4 in race 10!).
I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.
Looks like I’ll be rooting for some unpopular horses…
Best of luck to you.
Here are WagerMate’s contenders for Friday…
I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 8 horses on Friday.
I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.
Good Luck!
In WagerMate, you can set all of your filters, and then save them in a “strategy” file (with “wmst” as the extension).
I developed a new strategy today — in about 10 minutes. First, I’ll show you the screen shots with my filters set. The first page of filters looks like this:
The second page of filters are set like this:
Note that I’ve set the new Track Quality filters to eliminate some tracks. The last page of filters:
Here, I decided to skip any races that had more than 2 unpredictable horses. Most of those are first time starters, or horses new to a surface.
You can see that I named this strategy “V4A.wmst”. OK, you can probably think of a better name. On the upside, it shows a small profit:
You can download the V4A.wmst file and see if it works for you.
In addition to the new filters I mentioned yesterday, WagerMate 4.0 has a lot of improvements in how it evaluates horses, and runs its simulations.
Here are the back testing results on my 2009-2017 data, with the default filters:
If you did no handicapping of your own, and simply bet on the 46,528 races that WagerMate told you to, you’d have won 25.34% of those races and lost 6.01% of your money.
Compare that to your competition — if they bet blindly, they’d lose 15% or 20% (the track’s takeout) — so you have a huge head start.
I hope you can use WagerMate’s filters AND your own expertise to get results that are even better than the WagerMate default selections.
Best of luck!
Version 4.0 of WagerMate has been released. The most visible feature is that there are now 21 handicapping filters instead of just 7.
The first page should look fairly familiar:
If you click “Next”, you’ll see the second page of filters:
Click “Next” again to see the third page of filters:
I’ll post soon about some other new features.
Good Luck!
Gronkoski finished second, and ruined our bets….
WagerMate likes the two favorites…
I’ll bet an exacta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10. And another exacta with 4, 7, 10 over 1, 4, 7, 10.
I’ll bet a superfecta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over All.
Enjoy!
We got 75% of the 7-8-6-5 superfecta, for a payoff of $0.00.
The exacta paid $13.70
The two bets cost a total of $12.80, so that’s a tiny profit.
We can use this as an example of needing both handicapping skills and wagering skills to make money. Almost everyone thought Justify was the best horse — that’s handicapping. But, how do you wager & profit from that belief? I used a common approach: bet on some long shots to finish in the money.
WagerMate likes the favorites…
…but doesn’t recommend those bets.
Instead, I’ll bet an exacta with 5, 7 over 1, 2, 6, 8 and a superfecta with 5, 7 over 5, 6, 7 over 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8 over 1 ,2, 5, 6, 7, 8.
WagerMate struck out — it didn’t have either Justify or Good Magic in the top 4 spots, so that exacta cost $24 with no return.
These are WagerMate’s picks…
I’m going to bet an exacta with 5, 9, 11, 16 over 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 14, 16.
…which uses the WagerMate picks on top, and adds a couple of favorites to place.
I managed to lose all 14 Win bets, for a grand total of $28.
I did win two of the exactas for $67.80 and $17.00. So the $78 spent on exacta tickets returned $84.80.
Hope you had as much fun as I did!
Just like last year, WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots for the Breeders’ Cup races. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 4 horses on Friday, and 14 horses on Saturday.
I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.
Here are the Friday picks…
And these are WagerMate’s contenders for the Saturday races…
Good luck!
Tapwrit won — none of the other WagerMate picks was even close.
Soooo, let’s average the Derby & Preakness & Belmont results and talk about that number….
…$168.10 returned for a $36 investment.
WagerMate likes some long shots…
I’ll box those 4 horses in an exacta.
Ummmm. Well Cloud Computing messed up my exacta. Let’s average the Derby & Preakness results and talk about that number….
WagerMate likes…
So I’ll box the same 4 horses in an exacta as I did for the Kentucky Derby.
The finish order of 5-1-11-14 means the $12 exacta I played turned into $168.10.
I was impressed that Lookin At Lee could do so well from post position 1.
WagerMate’s picks…
I’ll box those in an exacta.
I made 22 win bets. I miscounted in the last blog entry — the figures show that 21 horses had an ROI over 25% — and Masochistic turned into the 22nd bet because of a scratch in the sixth race yesterday. The winning bets were on Champagne Room, Finest City, and Tourist. That’s $115.40 back on the $44 worth of win bets.
Only two of the exacta bets paid off, returning $57.60 on the 13 bets of $6 each (total of $78 spent).
For the weekend, that’s a profit of $51.00 on $122 bet.
Three points: