Well, Maximum Security ended up being the favorite, and the first horse across the finish line… for what that’s worth. None of my exotic bets would have paid off even if Maximum Security wasn’t DQed.
2019 Kentucky Derby after Omaha Beach Scratched
Updated run…
New exacta: 5, 7, 10, 21 over 5, 7, 10, 16, 17, 21.
I’ll box 5, 7, 10, 16, 17, 21 in the trifecta.
2019 Kentucky Derby
WagerMate likes at least one long shot…
I’m going to bet an exacta with 5, 7, 12, 21 over 5, 7, 12, 16,17, 21.
…which mixes the WagerMate picks with some other contenders.
I’ll also box 5, 7, 12, 16,17, 21 in the trifecta.
2018 Breeders’ Cup Results
I lost all of my win bets, and only the last exacta bet paid off — it paid $130.80.
The bets cost a total of $126, so I ended up with a small profit. I didn’t enjoy losing 13 races in a row, but Gunnevera coming in second made for a nice exacta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
BC Race 5 Update
Due to a scratch, my exacta bet will change…
…I’ll box 10-2-1. That also means one less win bet for me.
The race 11 contenders have also changed due to a scratch…
… which changes my win bet, and the exacta.
2018 Breeders’ Cup Saturday
WagerMate’s contenders for Saturday…
The Breeders’ Cup races are races 3 though 11. As usual, WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots.
I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 16 horses on Saturday (including 4 in race 10!).
I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.
Looks like I’ll be rooting for some unpopular horses…
Best of luck to you.
2018 Breeders’ Cup Friday
Here are WagerMate’s contenders for Friday…
I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 8 horses on Friday.
I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.
Good Luck!
A New Strategy
In WagerMate, you can set all of your filters, and then save them in a “strategy” file (with “wmst” as the extension).
I developed a new strategy today — in about 10 minutes. First, I’ll show you the screen shots with my filters set. The first page of filters looks like this:
The second page of filters are set like this:
Note that I’ve set the new Track Quality filters to eliminate some tracks. The last page of filters:
Here, I decided to skip any races that had more than 2 unpredictable horses. Most of those are first time starters, or horses new to a surface.
You can see that I named this strategy “V4A.wmst”. OK, you can probably think of a better name. On the upside, it shows a small profit:
You can download the V4A.wmst file and see if it works for you.
WagerMate V4 ROI
In addition to the new filters I mentioned yesterday, WagerMate 4.0 has a lot of improvements in how it evaluates horses, and runs its simulations.
Here are the back testing results on my 2009-2017 data, with the default filters:
If you did no handicapping of your own, and simply bet on the 46,528 races that WagerMate told you to, you’d have won 25.34% of those races and lost 6.01% of your money.
Compare that to your competition — if they bet blindly, they’d lose 15% or 20% (the track’s takeout) — so you have a huge head start.
I hope you can use WagerMate’s filters AND your own expertise to get results that are even better than the WagerMate default selections.
Best of luck!
WagerMate V4
Version 4.0 of WagerMate has been released. The most visible feature is that there are now 21 handicapping filters instead of just 7.
The first page should look fairly familiar:
If you click “Next”, you’ll see the second page of filters:
Click “Next” again to see the third page of filters:
I’ll post soon about some other new features.
Good Luck!
2018 Belmont Stakes Results
Gronkoski finished second, and ruined our bets….
2018 Belmont Stakes
WagerMate likes the two favorites…
I’ll bet an exacta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10. And another exacta with 4, 7, 10 over 1, 4, 7, 10.
I’ll bet a superfecta with 1 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over 3, 4, 7, 10 over All.
Enjoy!
2018 Preakness Results
We got 75% of the 7-8-6-5 superfecta, for a payoff of $0.00.
The exacta paid $13.70
The two bets cost a total of $12.80, so that’s a tiny profit.
We can use this as an example of needing both handicapping skills and wagering skills to make money. Almost everyone thought Justify was the best horse — that’s handicapping. But, how do you wager & profit from that belief? I used a common approach: bet on some long shots to finish in the money.
2018 Preakness
WagerMate likes the favorites…
…but doesn’t recommend those bets.
Instead, I’ll bet an exacta with 5, 7 over 1, 2, 6, 8 and a superfecta with 5, 7 over 5, 6, 7 over 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8 over 1 ,2, 5, 6, 7, 8.
2018 Kentucky Derby Results
WagerMate struck out — it didn’t have either Justify or Good Magic in the top 4 spots, so that exacta cost $24 with no return.
2018 Kentucky Derby
These are WagerMate’s picks…
I’m going to bet an exacta with 5, 9, 11, 16 over 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 14, 16.
…which uses the WagerMate picks on top, and adds a couple of favorites to place.
2017 Breeders’ Cup Results
I managed to lose all 14 Win bets, for a grand total of $28.
I did win two of the exactas for $67.80 and $17.00. So the $78 spent on exacta tickets returned $84.80.
Hope you had as much fun as I did!
2017 Breeders’ Cup
Just like last year, WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots for the Breeders’ Cup races. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 4 horses on Friday, and 14 horses on Saturday.
I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.
Here are the Friday picks…
And these are WagerMate’s contenders for the Saturday races…
Good luck!
2017 Belmont Stakes Results
Tapwrit won — none of the other WagerMate picks was even close.
Soooo, let’s average the Derby & Preakness & Belmont results and talk about that number….
…$168.10 returned for a $36 investment.
2017 Belmont Stakes
WagerMate likes some long shots…
I’ll box those 4 horses in an exacta.