2016 Breeders’ Cup Results

I made 22 win bets.  I miscounted in the last blog entry — the figures show that 21 horses had an ROI over 25% — and Masochistic turned into the 22nd bet because of a scratch in the sixth race yesterday.  The winning bets were on Champagne Room, Finest City, and Tourist.  That’s $115.40 back on the $44 worth of win bets.

Only two of the exacta bets paid off, returning $57.60 on the 13 bets of $6 each (total of $78 spent).

For the weekend, that’s a profit of $51.00 on $122 bet.

Three points:

  1. This would have been a lot worse without $69.20 from Champagne Room, so you could say we had some good luck.
  2. Champagne Room was the 11th most popular horse out of 12 in the race, so WagerMate deserves some credit for making it a contender.
  3. This was done without a shred of manual handicapping.  I still think you should add your own work to WagerMate’s ideas.

2016 Breeders’ Cup

WagerMate likes a mix of favorites and long shots for the Breeders’ Cup races this year. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 7 horses on Friday, and 12 horses on Saturday.

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Here are the Friday picks…

2016 BC FridayThese are WagerMate’s contenders for Saturday…

2016 BC SaturdayHave Fun!

2016 Belmont Stakes

WagerMate is more enthusiastic about Suddenbreakingnews than I am…

2016 Belmont…but as a show of faith, I’ll make a small win bet on 4.

I’ll box 4, 5, and 11 for the exacta.

For the superfecta, I will bet 4, 5, 11 over 4, 5, 11 over  1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11 over  1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11.

2016 Preakness

WagerMate likes Nyquist…

2016 Preakness…but I won’t make any win bets.

My exacta bet: 3 over 2, 5, 11.

My superfecta bet: 3 over 1, 2, 5, 11 over 1, 2, 5, 7, 11 over 1, 2, 5, 7, 11.

Have fun!

Build 340

Version 3.5 of WagerMate has been released.  It has one major new feature: it uses a new track-to-track variant.

That one improvement gets us more than a 1% point increase in both the Win Rate and the ROI.  Here are the back testing results on my 2009-2013 data, with the default filter:

Build 340This indicates that if you blindly followed WagerMate’s picks you’d lose 7%.  If you only followed the picks for turf races, you’d win 1%.

By now, you should know that’s not how I really think you should use the WagerMate results — I want you to combine the WagerMate results with your own handicapping work.  If you use the WagerMate results, instead of starting with an ROI of -20% (due to the takeout), you’re starting at -7%, and that’s a big difference.

Good luck!

2016 Kentucky Derby

WagerMate likes Outwork…2016 Derby Contenders

…but I think it make sense to include Nyquist in most of our betting.

I’ll bet on 9 & 15 to win, figuring there’s no value in Nyquist.

I’ll bet 9,13,15 over 9,11,13,14,15 in the exacta.

Good luck!

Breeder’s Cup Recap

Won $107.50 on bets of $108.00 for an ROI of… 0%.  Didn’t have a great weekend except for the $95.70 exacta in Race 9.  A couple of WagerMate’s recommended bets were canceled due to scratches.

Here’s the positive spin: by blindly following WagerMate, I broke even (lets not quibble about the 50 cents) — imagine how well you can do if you do some actual study & handicapping.

2015 Breeder’s Cup

WagerMate likes a lot of long shots for the Breeder’s Cup races again. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 25% — that’s 7 horses on Friday, and 15 horses on Saturday.

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Here are the Friday picks…

2015 BC Day 1Here’s what WagerMate thinks about Saturday…

2015 BC Day 2Hope you enjoy the weekend!

Build 338

The latest version of WagerMate, build 338, has a couple of minor improvements in it:

  1. WagerMate knows that Del Mar is switching back to dirt tomorrow.
  2. A bug related to saving user-scratch information is fixed.

I’m working on improving the track-to-track variant.  It may take a couple of months to do all of the calculations, and insert the new work into WagerMate.

2015 Preakness

WagerMate likes the same three horses it liked in the Kentucky Derby, in the same order:2015 Preakness

I feel obliged to bet them in the trifecta this time.

I don’t like American Pharoah as much as WagerMate does; I still like Firing Line, so I’ll bet it to win.

I’ll also bet a superfecta 1/2/8 over 1/2/8 over 1/2/8 over All.

2015 Kentucky Derby Results

18-10-8-15

So a $1 exacta bet paid $36.30; not bad.

Did I recommend betting WagerMate’s top 3 picks in the trifecta???  No?  50 cents woulda turned into $50.50.  Happy to have to the top 3 picks in order, but really, these were not long shots, so I can’t claim this was magical.

2015 Kentucky Derby

WagerMate likes the favorites…

2015 Derby…but the only value there is Firing Line, so I’m going to bet on it to win.

I’m going to mix El Kabeir into my exacta bet, because Calvin Borel is riding: I’m going to bet on 7/8/10/18 over 2/7/8/10/18.

Enjoy!

2014 Breeder’s Cup

WagerMate likes a lot of long shots for the Breeder’s Cup races.  I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 100% — that’s 6 horses on Friday, and 19 horses on Saturday.

I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.

Here are the Friday picks…

2014 BC FridayHere are WagerMate’s picks for the Saturday races…

2014 BC SaturdayGood luck!