Monthly Archives: July 2014

Speed, Speed, and Speed

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The latest version of WagerMate has a new feature…

Speed FigureYou can now use the default WagerMate speed figure, or use the TrackMaster speed figure instead.  You can even use the average of the two figures.

Here are the results when I use each of the three settings on my 2009-2013 data to look at Win bets (in this example, I’m not using any WMST file to filter out bad bets, so the ROIs aren’t very good). SpeedSpeedSpeedThe “Average” setting has some nice attributes:

  1. More bets are made
  2. More bets are won
  3. Highest ROI

If we use the new “Average” setting and the default filters on my 2009-2013 data for back testing…

AverageTurf…WagerMate’s picks get an overall ROI of -8%.  It’s interesting to note that the Turf Sprint bets would have paid a 3% profit over this span..

So, we don’t get guaranteed profits, but I think it’s nice to have an advantage in our handicapping — without applying a bit of our wisdom or experience, we’re way ahead of the game.

Now and Then

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This report, using the default settings, shows the ROI per year on my test data…

2005 to 2013 ROII see a sudden drop-off in performance after 2010.  I blame the rise of the computers.  Our competition has gotten stronger, so we have to work harder than ever to make a profit.

I’m going to drop the 2005 data from my standard back testing.  Partly because it’s old, but mostly because it makes WagerMate look too good.  I want my back testing to be as realistic as possible.

P.S. Oops, I try to remember to use the ROI switch that says “1% means a 1% profit”, but in this figure I had it set to “101% means 1% profit”.  Sorry.