WagerMate likes Nyquist…
…but I won’t make any win bets.
My exacta bet: 3 over 2, 5, 11.
My superfecta bet: 3 over 1, 2, 5, 11 over 1, 2, 5, 7, 11 over 1, 2, 5, 7, 11.
Have fun!
Monthly Archives: May 2016
Build 340
Version 3.5 of WagerMate has been released. It has one major new feature: it uses a new track-to-track variant.
That one improvement gets us more than a 1% point increase in both the Win Rate and the ROI. Here are the back testing results on my 2009-2013 data, with the default filter:
This indicates that if you blindly followed WagerMate’s picks you’d lose 7%. If you only followed the picks for turf races, you’d win 1%.
By now, you should know that’s not how I really think you should use the WagerMate results — I want you to combine the WagerMate results with your own handicapping work. If you use the WagerMate results, instead of starting with an ROI of -20% (due to the takeout), you’re starting at -7%, and that’s a big difference.
Good luck!
2016 Kentucky Derby Results
The two favorites, Nyquist and Exaggerator, came in first & second: 13-11-5-14, so we missed on the win bet, but made a little profit on the exacta.
The $24 exacta ticket paid $30.60.
2016 Kentucky Derby
WagerMate likes Outwork…
…but I think it make sense to include Nyquist in most of our betting.
I’ll bet on 9 & 15 to win, figuring there’s no value in Nyquist.
I’ll bet 9,13,15 over 9,11,13,14,15 in the exacta.
Good luck!