WagerMate was right about American Pharoah (but, so was everyone else).
WagerMate and I were wrong about Firing Line. On to Belmont….
2015 Preakness
WagerMate likes the same three horses it liked in the Kentucky Derby, in the same order:
I feel obliged to bet them in the trifecta this time.
I don’t like American Pharoah as much as WagerMate does; I still like Firing Line, so I’ll bet it to win.
I’ll also bet a superfecta 1/2/8 over 1/2/8 over 1/2/8 over All.
2015 Kentucky Derby Results
18-10-8-15
So a $1 exacta bet paid $36.30; not bad.
Did I recommend betting WagerMate’s top 3 picks in the trifecta??? No? 50 cents woulda turned into $50.50. Happy to have to the top 3 picks in order, but really, these were not long shots, so I can’t claim this was magical.
2015 Kentucky Derby
WagerMate likes the favorites…
…but the only value there is Firing Line, so I’m going to bet on it to win.
I’m going to mix El Kabeir into my exacta bet, because Calvin Borel is riding: I’m going to bet on 7/8/10/18 over 2/7/8/10/18.
Enjoy!
2014 Breeder’s Cup
WagerMate likes a lot of long shots for the Breeder’s Cup races. I’ll place $2 win bets on every horse that WagerMate says has an ROI over 100% — that’s 6 horses on Friday, and 19 horses on Saturday.
I’ll also place $1 exacta box bets on the top 3 picks in each race.
Here are the Friday picks…
Here are WagerMate’s picks for the Saturday races…
Good luck!
The Long Goodbye
TrackMaster improved the security of their site yesterday — and now an old Microsoft bug might impact some WagerMate users. If you see this “Download failed” message:
… it might be because of the bug. The problem is in Windows XP SP2 (it is fixed in XP Service Pack 3). If you want the gory details, Google on “SHA256RSA XP”.
You can use the Control Panel to find out what version of XP you are using.
If you’re using XP SP2, you’ll have to say goodbye and upgrade to a newer version of Windows. Microsoft has given up on repairing XP SP2, so there will never be a fix.
Sorry for any inconvenience.
Speed, Speed, and Speed
The latest version of WagerMate has a new feature…
You can now use the default WagerMate speed figure, or use the TrackMaster speed figure instead. You can even use the average of the two figures.
Here are the results when I use each of the three settings on my 2009-2013 data to look at Win bets (in this example, I’m not using any WMST file to filter out bad bets, so the ROIs aren’t very good). 
The “Average” setting has some nice attributes:
- More bets are made
- More bets are won
- Highest ROI
If we use the new “Average” setting and the default filters on my 2009-2013 data for back testing…
…WagerMate’s picks get an overall ROI of -8%. It’s interesting to note that the Turf Sprint bets would have paid a 3% profit over this span..
So, we don’t get guaranteed profits, but I think it’s nice to have an advantage in our handicapping — without applying a bit of our wisdom or experience, we’re way ahead of the game.
Now and Then
This report, using the default settings, shows the ROI per year on my test data…
I see a sudden drop-off in performance after 2010. I blame the rise of the computers. Our competition has gotten stronger, so we have to work harder than ever to make a profit.
I’m going to drop the 2005 data from my standard back testing. Partly because it’s old, but mostly because it makes WagerMate look too good. I want my back testing to be as realistic as possible.
P.S. Oops, I try to remember to use the ROI switch that says “1% means a 1% profit”, but in this figure I had it set to “101% means 1% profit”. Sorry.
2014 Belmont Follow-up
That’s why we run the races….
2014 Belmont
WagerMate says California Chrome has a 24% chance of winning, but will be a lousy bet (a negative ROI).
So, here’s the plan: bet a $1 exacta with 2 & All for a total of $10.
Add a $1 exacta 5/8/10 over 2/5/8/10 for another $9.
How can you lose?
Preakness 2014 Follow-up
California Chrome, the favorite, won — so not much excitement. I bet on the wrong exactas.
Maybe I should take some comfort because WagerMate picked 3,2,8,4 (in that order) and the actual finish order was 3,10,8,2,4. Except for Ride On Curlin, WagerMate had pretty much the right idea. But, I’d prefer a profit.
Preakness 2014
I don’t see much point in betting on California Chrome to win, so I will box 2, 3, and 8 in an exacta.
Enjoy!
2014 Derby Follow-up
WagerMate picked the winner — but so did everyone else, so it was hard to make a profit.
2014 Kentucky Derby
WagerMate doesn’t recommend a bet, but I can’t help myself. I plan to place a $1 exacta box on 5/12/13/18/20. That includes the 2 favorites, and 3 less likely horses that WagerMate fancies.
Best of luck!
2013 Breeder’s Cup
WagerMate doesn’t recommend a “Best Bet” in any of the Breeder’s Cup races, but I’ll place small bets just for fun.
I’ll keep it simple: $2 to win in each race on WagerMate’s top two picks, and a $1 3 horse exacta box — for a total of $10 per race.
I’ll use the Contenders Report to make the bets…
Friday…
Breeder’s Cup 11-1-2013
Saturday…
Breeder’s Cup 11-2-2013
Good luck!
2013 Belmont
WagerMate refuses to believe in Orb (race 11 in this ContendersReport):
Belmont 2013
I’ll use Orb with WagerMate’s picks to make some exacta bets.
2013 Preakness
WagerMate still doesn’t believe in Orb (race 12 in this Contenders Report):
Preakness 2013
I’ll be using combinations of WagerMate’s picks in small exotic bets.
Good luck!
2013 Derby
WagerMate doesn’t have any Best Bets for Churchill Downs on Saturday. Here are WagerMate’s contenders for the stakes races:
Derby Contenders
I’m going to make small Win and Exacta bets on WagerMate’s top 4 picks in the Kentucky Derby (race 11).
Good luck!
Breeder’s Cup Summary
This spreadsheet summarizes my bets on the 15 Breeder’s Cup races:
BC 2012 Results
Friday was a good day… Saturday, not so much. But, remember, all these bets were WagerMate’s suggestions — in an ideal world, I’d also have some handicapping ideas of my own to add to the mix.
In other news: the only “Best Bet” on either card, Big Bane Theory, paid $12.20.
Friday Update after Scratches
There have been a few scratches…
BC Friday Update